DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/02 10:56
Corn, Beans and Wheat Lower
Corn trade is 10 cents to 11 cents higher; beans are 2 to 3 cents higher;
and wheat trade is 12 to 19 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the S&P 500 up 8. The dollar index is 60
points higher. Interest-rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with
crude at 1.90 lower and natural gas at .05 lower. Livestock trade is mostly
higher. Precious metals are weaker with gold 16 lower.
Corn trade is 10 cents to 11 cents higher at midday Monday with trade
working back to the upper end of the recent range after the pullback Friday
with harvest progress continuing at a good clip, for the most part, after the
government shutdown was averted for. Ethanol margins will likely stay sideways
short-term with unleaded working to find a supportive level for blending as
winter blends get phased in.
The daily wire has been more active lately with Mexico securing another
210,000 metric tons (mt)today with weekly inspections in line with recent weeks
at 625,780 metric tons. Basis should continue to see short-term pressure.
Weekly crop progress should show maturity ahead of the 5-year pace, harvest
progress and steady conditions. On the report, stocks were at 1.361 billion vs.
1.429 expected. On the December chart, the 20-day at $4.80 1/2 is resistance
with trade above it at midday, with the recent low at $4.67 3/4 as further
Soybean trade is 2 cents to 3 cents higher at midday with trade pressing
into nearby lows again with harvest pressure before finding some light buying
with South American planting to pick up further as showers move through Brazil.
Meal is 5 to 6 lower and oil is 80 to 90 points higher.
On the report, stocks were 268 million bushels vs. 242 million last year.
The daily wire showed 132,000 mt sold to China with weekly export inspections
picking up a bit at 663,335 mt. Basis will fade with harvest picking up again
with the river system still declining in flows. Weekly crop progress shows
harvest and maturity ahead of the five-year average again with steady
conditions. November chart support is the fresh low at $12.65 1/2, with
resistance to the 20-day at $13.26.
Wheat trade is 12 cents to 19 cents higher at midday with trade working to
see if the Friday washout to fresh lows post-report was capitulation trade or
not with heavily oversold conditions and little other fresh news to drive
action with spreads favoring Chicago again. On the report, wheat production was
1.812 billion bushels vs. 1.729 expected, and stocks were 1.780 billion vs.
1.77 expected. Matif wheat is lower with the dollar back at year highs. Plains
planting progress should move forward with warm and somewhat wet conditions
keeping progress near the five-year average, while Australia continues to
struggle. Little change in the Black Sea situation is seen with bushels still
moving out and planting just underway. Weekly export inspections were a little
soft at 397,594 mt. On the KC December chart, the lower Bollinger Band at $6.73
is resistance just above at midday with the fresh low at $6.62 below that.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala
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